Posted 7/16/2025

Rumors have been swirling for years that China could potentially invade Taiwan. China has been conducting military exercises around Taiwan lately, adding to the speculation that war may be imminent. Beijing asserts its 'One China Principle,' viewing Taiwan as an inalienable part of its territory and a renegade province. Several complexities are involved, but in summary, the government that once ruled China fled to Taiwan after being overthrown in a civil war in the country in 1949. Here is where it gets tricky. No ceasefire between the PRC and Taiwan has ever been announced nor has any armistice and this has led to an ongoing debate over whether the civil war ever truly ended. Without a formal end to the Chinese civil war, two distinct political entities continue to stake claims over the same territory. The People's Republic of China (PRC) took control of the mainland and ardently seeks reunification, often implying the annexation of Taiwan. UN General Assembly Resolution 2758 states that the PRC are the only lawful representatives of China to the United Nations. However, Taiwan became strategically important to the United States during the Cold War. The United States has effectually been protecting Taiwan from mainland China since 1950, even while recognizing the PRC as the official government of China in the late 1970s and acknowledging the "one China policy."  Few may remember Nancy Pelosi's 2022 visit to Taiwan that many thought would trigger an international incident. Pelosi deemed the visit a sign of the United States' "unwavering commitment to supporting Taiwan's vibrant democracy." The PRC condemned the visit and called it a provocation that "seriously infringes on China's sovereignty." In the wake of Pelosi's visit, China began to expand its military presence in the region. Meanwhile, the U.S. continues to sell arms and munitions to Taiwan in an effort to help them defend themselves were an incursion to take place. It isn't clear whether the U.S. would get involved if China commenced with a full-scale invasion.